Is Mexico prepared for the mass deportation that Trump promises? (and what Claudia Sheinbaum said)

It is estimated that one third of the 45 million foreigners living in the United States are Mexican. And, of them, an estimated 4 million are there without immigration status; of a total of 11 million undocumented people.

So: although there are not 20 million undocumented migrants to be deported, there are many people who can become a fulfilled promise of Trump.

And the question is whether Mexico is prepared for that.

Guadalupe González, a renowned Mexican internationalist, says no: “Although more things are being done than ever, in general we are not prepared, and there are issues, such as aid to Mexicans in the US, in which we are better prepared than in others, such as in the reception of migrants or the mitigation of a drop in remittances.

After completing 100 days in office, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has focused part of her administration on addressing the possible effects of a new Trump mandate, which has also promised to increase tariffs on imports from Mexico to 25%.

In addition to announcing an economic policy to promote industries and attract foreign investments, Sheinbaum maintains that he will “receive our compatriots in the best way in case they are deported.”

“We are prepared,” he said.

On the one hand, Mexico hopes to strengthen the 53 consulates it has in the United States, one of the largest consular networks in the world.

In these government headquarters in the neighboring country, they launched training on rights for officials, opened a single window for consultations and will hold talks and meetings with the migrant community.

In addition, a cell phone application was created, Alert Button, with which Mexicans in danger of being deported will be able to notify the nearest consulate and the Foreign Ministry.

Sheinbaum maintains that migration must be contained multilaterally among the international community, addressing the problems of poverty and violence that cause it. In that sense, the president hopes to collaborate with countries such as Honduras, Colombia or Ecuador.

On the other hand, and in a less media-friendly manner, the authorities deployed on the southern border to stop the caravans of migrants heading north.

The policy, called by analysts as “dispersion and exhaustion,” has doubled the number of migrant detentions in Mexico in the last two years.

Since Trump won the election, at least seven migrant caravans have been broken up by the army, the main person in charge of border control in Mexico.

Many of these migrants dispersed through states in southern Mexico. Many of the refugee shelters are already at capacity.

And it is in that aspect, that of immigration control, that experts are beginning to show concern.

Because, despite the measures announced, none of those consulted by BBC Mundo see a comprehensive immigration reception policy that alters a status quo that in recent decades has resulted in multiple violations of the human rights of people around the world.

“Mexico’s immigration policy has always been oriented toward containment, seeking to prevent people from reaching the northern border,” says Margarita Núñez, anthropologist and coordinator of the Migration Affairs program at the Universidad Iberoamericana de México.

“The same INM officials (the National Migration Institute) have told us that they do not understand what it is like to welcome migrants, to integrate them into the system,” he adds.

“And that results in a perverse paradox: those who really want to stay in Mexico end up choosing to leave, because they do not have the minimum conditions to do so.”

In her research, the anthropologist has found that a migrant, to be able to regularize in Mexico, “needs many resources, while those who migrate out of necessity or obligation end up adrift, subject to the control of the informal route to migrate, which is in hands of armed groups”.

More than a thousand INM officials were fired last week for extorting travelers.

90% of the migrants in the shelters studied by Núñez in northern states of the country told him that they were kidnapped by armed groups after not having been admitted by state authorities.

Guadalupe Correa, an expert in crime and migration, adds: “The great beneficiaries of this mass deportation are going to be the coyotes, the human trafficking networks, because the State does not have the capacity or the interest to welcome them and most likely it is those who are returned to Mexico try to migrate north again.”

The Mexican Constitution orders that “every man has the right to enter the Republic, leave it, travel through its territory and change residence, without the need for a security letter, passport, safe conduct or other similar requirements.”

Mexico has always been a place of transit. Arab, European and Latin influences are seen in every corner of its cities. Its celebrated and fraternal asylum policy made it a seat of international political, artistic and philosophical thought during the 20th century.

But that tradition, according to experts, does not translate into a robust policy for receiving migrants.

“It is a more or less welcoming country for migrants, because on the one hand there is predation on migrants in transit, but on the other hand a migrant who wants to stay has a certain welcome; it is not an anti-migrant country, Haitians have fared more or less well because they have a reputation for being good workers,” says Andrew Selee, president of the Migration Policy Institute, a think tank.

Mexico’s need to concentrate its immigration efforts on containment, according to experts, has to do with the fact that its policy is marked by its relationship with the United States, which contemplates economic and political aspects that condition the bilateral relationship.

The INM, the powerful Mexican immigration control entity, emerged from the negotiation of the free trade agreement with the United States in the 1990s. And in the Foreign Ministry, the immigration issue is managed by the Undersecretary of North America.

“And that tells you a lot,” says Selee, “immigration policy is designed based on Washington.”

Núñez adds: “The authorities make the excuse that they cannot do anything because the pressure from the US is enormous, but that does not exempt them in terms of the treatment of migrants.”

“Militarizing migration, as Mexico has done in recent decades and apparently that is what Sheinbaum wants to continue, dehumanizes the migrant, placing them as a threat to national security,” says the researcher.

Both experts, however, believe that this situation could be an opportunity for Mexico to reformulate its strategy and respond to deportations with hospitality.

Núñez concludes: “There is a culture of shelter here, studies have found that migration is beneficial for the economy. But for that we have to change the structure: go from containment to integration.”

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