Thousands of TikTok content creators in the United States have already begun to say goodbye to their followers and invite them to connect with them on other social networks. Although some still hoped to continue on the popular video platform, goodbye seems inevitable. This January 19 marks the deadline given by Washington for TikTok to separate itself from its Chinese parent companyByteDance. Otherwise, you will face a ban in the United States.
The dispute is not new. The United States maintains that TikTok allows the Chinese government to collect data and spy on users and is a channel to spread propaganda. The struggle is part of the tensions that confront both countries in fields ranging from trade to national security.
TikTok will be banned and restricted in 20 countries Photo:X: @ll_erenas
TikTok is waiting for the United States Supreme Court to decide whether to support the law that gave the ultimatum to the application and that was approved by the US Congress in April 2024 by Democrats and Republicans. Specifically, the rule established a nine-month period for the platform to find an investor from a country that is not considered an ‘adversary’ of the United States. In short: sell or disappear.So far it is the Chinese matrix application that has the upper hand. According to the newspaper, “The New York Times”, after hearing arguments from the parties last Friday the 10th, the Supreme Court “seemed inclined to confirm a law that could effectively ban TikTok.
“Although several justices expressed concern that the law conflicted with the First Amendment, a majority seemed satisfied that it did not target TikTok’s speech rights, but rather its property, which the government claims is controlled.” by China,” explains the media, which details that several judges seem concerned about the possibility that China could use private information about Americans.
On Tuesday the 14th, the final stretch of this battle was shaken when the agency BloombergNews reported that fChinese officials considered selling TikTok’s US operations to tycoon Elon Muskwho will be part of Donald Trump’s government. This possibility was described by a TikTok spokesperson as “pure fiction.”
With the deadline approaching, these are some of the immediate consequences that could arise from the ban on TikTok in the United States.
1. Goodbye TikTok for about 170 million users
TikTok has 170 million American users. Since its popularity skyrocketed in that country in 2018, the platform has not only positioned itself as a source of entertainment and content creation, but has created an ecosystem that allows for e-commerce and advertising.
Fines would amount to $5,000 per American user. Photo:iStock
As he explains “The New York Times”, if the Supreme Court approves the law under debate, it would make it illegal for the app stores of companies like Apple and Google to distribute or issue TikTok updates. Fines would amount to $5,000 per American user.
An important detail is that the law does not state that the application must be deleted from cell phones, but since updates are not available, it will no longer work in the long run. That is if TikTok does not decide to block the application due to its ban.
2. Hello, Xiaohongshu? The new Chinese app to which the American audience is migrating
The proximity to January 19 has caused more and more TikTok users in the United States to look for alternatives. Although many ask their followers to connect with them on their Instagram, YouTube, Facebook or other social media accounts, in In recent months, the Chinese social network Xiaohongshu has gained notable popularity.
Known as the Chinese Instagram, Xiaohongshuwhat does it mean “Little Red Book”is already the most downloaded application in the United States these days. Some of its new users have defined themselves as “TikTok refugees” and are receiving advice from their Chinese members on how to use the social network.
Xiaohongshu, which means “Little Red Book”. Photo:Social Networks / X
The AP agency points out that in recent years, the application has gained popularity in China and other regions and countries with Chinese diaspora, such as Malaysia and Taiwan, accumulating 300 million active users every monthmost of whom are young women who use it as a de facto search engine for product, travel and restaurant recommendations, as well as makeup and skincare tutorials.
It should be noted that the current number 2 on the iPhone download chart is Lemon8, Xiaohongshu’s competitor developed precisely by TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, indicates the Efe agency.
3. Tensions will grow between China and the United States
Behind the dispute over TikTok are tensions between the United States and China, which have resulted in conflicts on several levels, especially economic and technological.
Carlos Aquino, coordinator of the Center for Asian Studies (CEAS) at the Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, points out that the possible ban of TikTok in the United States is another part of the escalation between both nations and that It began with the tariffs that Trump imposed against the Asian giant in his first government.
“Biden maintained the tariffs and not only that, this dispute has continued with restrictions on the sale of chips or technologies used for artificial intelligence. The United States does not want all advanced technologies to reach China because it says China is using them not only for civilian use, but also for its military. Biden has been clear in saying that he does not want this technology to reach China, something that will probably also be maintained with Trump,” says the expert.
TikTok could close in the United States Photo:iStock
Aquino points out that in the event of a ban, the big loser will obviously be TikTok, but, on the other hand, he considers that many companies in the United States are viewing this scenario favorably because those millions of people who use TikTok to sell and promote items and services are going to have to go to places like Instagram, YouTube and other platforms.
“I believe that this whole problem with TikTok is confirmation that this fight for technological survival or this fight to prevent the other country from having a way of interfering in the other nation with its technologies is going to be reaffirmed,” he adds.
4. Other platforms are not safe
Given the possibility that platforms like Xiaohongshu could be filled with American users, Aquino also warns that it could suffer the same fate as TikTok.
“It would not be strange if the United States also placed restrictions on that network. Because the idea is that in this competition between China and the United States, everything that is Chinese technology – because according to the United States, private companies in China are subject to what the State says – represents a danger that consumer information North Americans reaches the hands of China, then it is likely that all types of technology that could lead to this will be restricted,” he points out.
China may respond in some way to the ruling against TikTok in the United States. Photo:Sasha Steinbach. EFE
Furthermore, it does not rule out that China may respond in some way to the ruling against TikTok in the United Statessomething that would be paradoxical if we remember that large Western platforms, such as Google and Facebook, are blocked in China for security reasons.
5. More uncertainty in the Donald Trump 2.0 era
The ultimatum to TikTok expires one day before Donald Trump returns to the White House, which makes it pertinent to wonder how the Republican will manage his relations with the Asian giant.
“China has accumulated a trade surplus of one trillion dollars, something historic. So that’s going to give more ammunition to the Trump people who think that the Chinese, using any legal or illegal means, are trying to affect the manufacturing industry of other countries. So those tariffs that Trump had promised are likely to come to fruition. Although it is not known to what extent it will occur, tariffs will definitely increase,” says Aquino.
US President Donald Trump. Photo:AFP
Now, it is likely – says the expert – that these tariffs are the beginning of a round of negotiations to extract concessions from China. But we will have to wait to see if that happens. In the meantime, it is evident that China is not going to sit idly by either.
“It is likely that if an agreement is not reached, the escalation will continue. As we see, what is happening now with TikTok is part of a larger scenario. The commercial issue, the technological issue. Let’s hope that this does not escalate and is reflected in the military issue. What is certain is that the situation is going to become more complicated, more unpredictable, because Trump is quite unpredictable. We do not know what it can do, but what is certain is that in the commercial and technological field this confrontation is going to worsen,” Aquino points out.
Milagros Asto Sánchez
EL COMERCIO (PERU) / GDA
