QFew days after the end of the year celebrations, reports began to appear about the increase in cases of people infected by a new virus. A respiratory illness with flu- or cold-like symptoms began to spread in northern China’s provinces during the winter, with a noticeable impact on children under four years old.
According to reports, hospitals are overwhelmed, intensive care units are operating at the limit of their capacity and new health control measures have been implemented. Concern intensified as signs emerged that the outbreak had begun to spread.
In India, a significant increase in cases has been recorded, while Malaysia and Kazakhstan began to report patients affected by the disease. According to reports on Tuesday, January 6, cases in the United States have doubled and reached 300. In the United Kingdom, an aggressive strain of flu is circulating, accompanied by other respiratory illnesses that appear to be spreading rapidly. There is no office or home that has escaped the impact of a debilitating situation in recent days.
This scenario brings back disturbing memories from five years ago, when rumors began to emerge in January 2020 about a possible outbreak of a deadly virus in China. At that time, images of saturated hospitals and improvised medical centers to care for the sick and deceased began to circulate. A month later, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced the official name of the strain: covid-19.
At that time, the flu was not a major concern. However, we all know what happened next. A few weeks later, the name of the virus was already known, while cases were multiplying rapidly throughout Europe. Soon after, the entire world was facing a global lockdown.
Five years later, the world is paying more attention to the signs it shouldn’t ignore. For this reason, recent headlines about the “rise” of a virus in China have generated alert and concern.
Countries and authorities are diligently monitoring the situation, while speculation and misinformation are already circulating on social networks. Official organizations demand greater transparency from China and point out how at the time it minimized the initial severity of the covid-19 pandemic. Beijing is now receiving demands to more openly share available data.
But the question remains: to what extent should we be alarmed?
The first thing to clarify is that, unlike covid-19, what is happening in China is not due to a new virus. This is human metapneumovirus (HMPV), a pathogen identified in the Netherlands in 2001. This “ancient” virus affects most people before the age of five. Researchers estimate that between 10 and 12% of respiratory illnesses in children are related to this virus. Furthermore, it is not as contagious as the coronavirus, since its incubation period varies between three and six days, nor is it as severe, despite the images coming from China.
Mortality rates associated with human metapneumovirus are significantly lower and the most common symptoms include cough, fever, nasal congestion and fatigue. Although most cases are mild, in some patients it can cause serious lower respiratory tract infections, such as pneumonia. It can also aggravate pre-existing conditions, such as asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
Not surprisingly, HMPV cases rise most rapidly during the winter and spring, a pattern that experts highlight each year. In the UK, it is evident that even the strongest people are succumbing to “whatever is going around”.
This winter has been especially difficult and marked by illness so far. Although recent government statistics indicate that last week saw the lowest rate of Covid-19 hospital admissions for this period in any post-pandemic winter, there has been a rapid increase in other viral illnesses, such as flu ( influenza), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), as well as outbreaks of diarrhea, vomiting and norovirus.
During the first week of reporting, in mid-December, there was a 352% increase in bed occupancy in general and acute care hospitals by flu patients. Regarding human metapneumovirus (HMPV), its prevalence shows moderate growth, with an activity level classified as “medium”. During the Covid-19 pandemic, viral infection rates were partially monitored by the government through sewer waste analysis, a useful tool for identifying trends in the spread of new viruses.
Preliminary HMPV data showed signs of high demand for healthcare driven by winter illnesses. However, they also highlighted that “it is not clear whether this winter represents the worst scenario to date in terms of pressure caused by flu.” The number of beds occupied by flu patients during the second week of winter reached the highest level “since this measure began to be recorded” in the 2020-2021 period.
“The total number of people hospitalized with flu and other viruses is far exceeding the figures recorded for the same period last year, putting NHS services under continued pressure,” said Saffron Cordery, acting chief executive of NHS Providers. . In addition, he warned that, with the return of children to schools and the increase in activity in offices, “the situation is likely to get worse before it begins to improve.”
In the UK, HMPV cases are increasing slightly week on week. However, experts insist on calming any fear that a situation similar to that of the last pandemic will be repeated. In the five years since the emergence of Covid-19, our perception of and response to viral diseases has changed significantly. In 2018, it was rare to hear friends or colleagues talk about an increase in flu cases anywhere in the world. Today, our collective consciousness shows a notable change.
“I think part of the current concern is influenced by recency bias because Covid-19 originated in China. This leads some people to perceive what could be discrimination or possibly relive a fear of the unknown. There is a fear that something like this could get out of control and become another pandemic,” explained Dr. Simon Williams, a behavioral scientist, public health researcher and professor of psychology at Swansea University, who has also served as a consultant to the WHO. .
Dr. Simon Williams highlights that several pandemic threats have been identified over the years but did not come to fruition. For example, bird flu in the United States poses a much greater risk than HMPV currently poses. Likewise, in recent weeks, a supposed “mystery” virus that sparked fear in the Democratic Republic of the Congo turned out to be a malaria outbreak. These cases emphasize the need to analyze risks carefully and avoid generating unnecessary alarms. Before jumping to conclusions, it is crucial to exercise caution and ensure you have reliable information.
Dr. Williams insists: “It is essential that data is shared globally, so that everyone can understand the real level of risk. Public communication depends on clear official assessments.” Although the world is still facing the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, this does not mean that another similar crisis cannot occur in the future. To confront these threats, the specialist emphasizes, it is necessary to have access to accurate and quality data that allows informed decisions to be made and the population to be prepared.
Clear communication of facts, or lack thereof, marked the unfortunate legacy of the Covid-19 pandemic. At that time, speculation about the origin of the virus in China, a crucial piece of information to prevent the spread of another outbreak, became common from the beginning.
Both the Chinese government, known for its secrecy towards external sources, and the WHO, through its own investigation, faced intense public scrutiny from The New York Times. Key questions, such as how Covid-19 jumped from animals to humans and why China failed to contain the virus, were left largely unanswered. Over time, misinformation and conspiracy theories found a receptive audience.
Although five years have passed, Williams believes this situation could contribute to the emergence of a new outbreak. In the UK, vaccine uptake has shown surprisingly low levels, even lower than last year, including among NHS staff. According to Williams, this is due to both complacency and doubt generated by the pandemic experience.
“On the one hand, this week the topic of the human poliovirus arises, which provokes perhaps anticipated fear of a possible pandemic: the first reports spark concern and feed the imagination,” he says. “The constant threats of the flu and Covid-19 do not seem to cause much concern to people. This could explain the low acceptance of vaccines, which increases the risk of new outbreaks, in addition to the lack of willingness to take days off in the event of symptoms of illness. We are returning to that mentality of continuing with our activities, even when sick, as happened in 2019,” he points out.
“It is crucial to find a balance: not to live in a state of constant fear of the next pandemic, but also not to fall into total indifference,” he warns.
With new reports of human metapneumovirus comes a disturbing reminder: a pandemic could repeat itself. While we watch closely what is happening in other countries, it is also crucial to pay greater attention to the dynamics and risks within our own environment. If 2020 taught us anything, it is the importance of taking threats seriously, regardless of their origin or appearance.
Translation of Leticia Zampedri
