Tension between Petro and Trump: reveal the four possible consequences that could affect Colombia

After the tension that remains in force between Colombia and the United Statesthe country still faces possible consequences that could affect it in economic matters mainly.

Experts interviewed per week, they revealed the possible effects that would be at risk of the relationship between the two countries.

“Sunday’s events are the first round of several that come. It was an autogol by Colombia“said Juan Cruz, National Security Exasesor for the Trump government Americas in his first mandate, during an event organized by the Colombian Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM) this week.

For Cruz, policies such as ‘America First’ (America First) have been reinforced to achieve new national objectives, aimed at external relationship. Implying this the use of tariffs as in a kind of weapons against other countries.

In addition, he pointed out that the first president of the United States would advance in four main axes: Migration, fight against drug traffickingin which the possible desertification of some countries foresees, among which Colombia would find, China’s role as a key actor in geopolitics and the approach that other countries have towards the Asian giant; and Commerce.

The latter could imply the renegotiation of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Colombia and the United States, which, according to experts, It would arrive at the most inopportune and exhausting moment for the bilateral relationship, Moreover, taking into account that the United States is the number one of Colombian exports, reaching more than 13,000 million dollars between January and November 2024.

In the early hours did not authorize the landing of two airplanes carrying deported citizens From the United States to the national territory.

The controversial message began a Diplomatic confrontation Between the president and the president of the American nation, Donald Trump, which would have generated a fracture in the relations that both countries have maintained for more than 200 years.

The former USBAJOR in Colombia, Kevin Whitaker, said that “the most pleased person with what happened must be Donald Trump, because (Petro) gave him the opportunity to show his seriousness and even his cruelty in strengthening his commitment to face the illegal migration ”.

As Whitaker explained, “Trump has a Manichaean vision of the world, he is with us or against us. Gustavo Petro put Colombia against the United States. ”

An ambassador to a Latin American country, accredited in Bogotá, declared to week that “Trump broke Petro’s neck. There is already a breakdown point in relations ”, which would imply a considerable disadvantage for Colombia in this fight with one of the most powerful countries in the world.

The concern generated by the possibility of cuts in several areas financed by the US government is presented as a rather close future.

The Low results from Colombia in the fight against drug trafficking They would result in the dreaded decertification of the country.

The ex -fiscal Alfonso Gómez Méndez explained to the magazine that “it is a mechanism that exists since the time of Nixon, when the war on drugs was declared. It is certified which countries are fulfilling the goals in that fight and, At this time, I have no doubt that a descrtification is coming. ”

This, according to recognized researcher at the University of Los Andes, Daniel Mejía, would imply more serious consequences than simply a reprimand. “Close very important cooperation and help programs,” he said.

To the economic panorama is added the concern of entrepreneurs for the issue of dutywhich would directly impact bilateral trade.

Recall that, in the midst of the political dispute between the two leaders, Trump ordered a tariff up to 50%, starting 25% the first week, over all Colombian assets that enter that country.

The former Minister of Mines and Energy, Mauricio Cárdenas, calculated that in the “best scenario” The loss of economic activity would be of the order of half a percentage point. “That is, if the economy will grow 2.7 percent, it would grow 2.2 percent. But there may be a greater loss, because with an increase in the price of 50 percent of some export products, the entire market can be lost. Colombian products are no longer competitive. ”

They also do not rule out the imposition of sanctions on the Treasury, the Banking and the Finance of the IEEPA (International Emergency Emergency Powers Law), as a financial punishment for Colombia.

The public force and its strengthening, would also be affected by the international cooperation decisions that the White House takes over the country.

The former Minister of Defense and former Vice President, Marta Lucía Ramírez, said that “the strengthening of military forces has been, in large part, thanks to the cooperation of the United States. At this time, with Maduro’s tensions on the border, we need more than ever our strengthened armed forces”