In the northern country 48 million immigrants reside working in jobs with low, medium and high wages in various sectors of the country’s economy. Of these, it is estimated that about 11 million live in an irregular situation. But, regardless of its immigration status, according to a study by the Institute of Economic Policy (EPI), Immigrant workers and businessmen generated 4.6 billion dollars for the United States in 2022.
And, they are undocumented, only in taxes, Irregular migrants paid $ 96.7 billion in 2022, According to a study ofl Institute of Fiscal and Economic Policy (ITEP).
It is estimated that more than 48,000 irregular workers between carpenters, painters and wallpapers work in New York. Photo:EFE
The amount is equivalent to the budget for social programs such as Medicare (the medical insurance of those who are 65 years or older in that country), although the undocumented do not have a valid social security and cannot join the medical assistance program to enjoy of its benefits.
In fact, according to the American Immigration Council (AIC), in 2022, that program received 5.7 billion dollars from undocumented migrants.
Similarly, in New York, undocumented people paid $ 3.1 billion in state and local taxes, a sum equivalent to the city’s childhood education budget for 2022.
So things, Anti -immigrants taken by Donald Trumpwhich include daily quotas of arrests, an express deportation law and the end of regularization programs, have as a backdrop a serious challenge for the US economy, in case of complying, as promised, with the expulsion of at least 7 Millions of people.
Federal agents of various units during a raid against undocumented in New York. Photo:EFE
The effects that migrants would have on the US economy
Since the migratory raids began a week ago to expel irregular migrants in the United States, the fear of the future is not only of immigrant communities, but also of the entrepreneurs who need that labour and that they already denounced that they observe a decrease in production.
According to Rebeca Shi, executive director of the American Business Immigration Coalition de Illinois, In deportations they have also fallen “essential workers” Despite that the Government indicates that the reviews are focused on violent people and drug cartels. Shi gave those statements a teleconference of entrepreneurs from the state of Illinois to which the agency had access EFE.
Since January 23, the daily records were published on the operations carried out by the Customs Immigration and Control Service (ICE) – Until Friday 31 of the same month, at least 5,537 arrests were documented and more than 4,333 retention orders were presented throughout the country.
According to an AIC forecast published in 2024, a mass deportation campaign would reduce the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States between 4.2 and 6.8 percent, without clarifying the deadline.
And, although, for now, he has concentrated in the main cities such as New York or Chicago, for the fear of being captured, immigrants are not being presented to their workplaces and remain in their homes.
Given this situation, last week, at the meeting, the members of that coalition in Illinois reported Una deceleration of 50 % in its operations.
And, on a large scale, according to an AIC forecast published in 2024, a mass deportation campaign would reduce the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States between 4.2 and 6.8 percentwithout clarifying the deadline.
For its part, an investigation by the University of Nueva Hampshire, also of 2024, estimates that the US economy would lose between 2.6 and 6.2 percent of GDP In a decade if massive expulsions are specified from more than 7 million undocumented.
What have been, until now, the states and sectors of the United States economy most affected by deportations?
Migrants Photo:EFE
In the virtual press conference reported by EFE, business leaders such as Matt Teagarden, of the Kansas farmers association, who said that immigrant labor is essential for their sector and agriculture in general.
Similarly, in an accelerated mass deportation, lThe undocumented that could be expelled belong to fundamental sectors for the daily economy of the United States.
For example, in the state of New York, according to a report by the Fiscal Policy Institute (FPI), the sector of the construction It would be the most affected. “Virtually no New York company depends on both undocumented workers and the construction sector, where the shortage of supplies and high interest rates have already fired costs in recent years,” said the newspaper The New York Times (NYT).
It is estimated that In New York, more than 48,000 irregular workers between carpenters, painters and wallpapers work, which constitute a quarter of the workforce of the sector, according to the FPI report, which was based on data from the Center for Migration Studies.
Another harmed sector will be food and restaurants businesses. More than 42,000 chefs, chefs, undocumented trainers and waiters work throughout the state, “Not to mention the developers that make possible the insatiable culture to the city letter,” explains the NYT.
Virtually no New York company depends on both undocumented workers and the construction sector.
But in general, in the country, according to the 2022 EPI report, 47 percent of immigrants work as floor waitresses, 37 % are construction workers, 27 % of you and 18 percent truck drivers.
Works in which “there are no prepared or available Americans to do the job,” says Lawrence Gumbiner, president of the Inter -American Strategies consultant.
So, “to replace illegal workers with legal peoplethe cost of workers will rise and there will be an inflationary impact”, The analyst expects.
What would be the solution?
ICE agents acted in collaboration with federal agencies such as FBI and DHS to expand the scope of operations Photo:X (@HSI_MIAMI)
Although perhaps it takes a bit to appreciate those consequences, according to Gumbiner, “the most logical” is that the United States owes expand the amount of work visas. “There is a lot of work, in the agricultural field, for example, or in construction, where clearly There are not enough Americans available”Explains the analyst.
Although, “that effort would require legislation approved by Congress, and it is very difficult for Congress to approve legislation on migration and works. They have not done so in more than 40 years and Now it is a reason why we have a very dysfunctional immigration situation”, Adds Gumbiner.
Laura Juliana Castellanos Guevara – International Writing – Time
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