MYSTERIES

Reasons for a mystery – El País Uruguay

I have not known of anyone who has been able to answer satisfactorily the key question of the electoral process of 2024: how is it possible that a government that retires with broad positive assessment in public opinion, and in particular its president, has lived with an unappealable defeat of the political field that represented it at the polls? I want to add some ideas to try to reveal the mystery.

A first explanation is methodological: surveys are not equivalent to the polls. The exact photo is the people voting, so perhaps we are really wanting to analyze a phenomenon that has some mirage and that confuses us a bit. The valuation survey involves a past and present evaluation of the government; On the other hand, the election decides on a future course: it is not being judged because exactly the same, so the comparison is not identical in its subjects.

A second explanation, more powerful, refers to the type of leadership of Lacalle Pou. Its permanent presence and direct contact with people refers to a style that could be described as superintendent, that is, someone close as all the mayors of the interior are and that, for that reason, are generally very well valued. The president is, it is accessible, does not refuse the contact and thus demonstrates in his daily life that is one more in the country of “Naides is more than naides.” That, which obviously translates into a good personal image, is in no way automatically transfers to anyone electorally. On the contrary, it is its own value, and clearly differs from the election of a political cast whose electoral leader was not Lacalle Pou.

A third reason concerns electoral dimensions that damaged the chances of the Republican coalition. The issue is very wide, but it is enough to point out here at least three issues: at the end of 2023 the white intern was already totally unbalanced, and that took away competition dynamics; The weakening in the outer image and the internal disorder of open council, decreased to a key border sector in relation to the front adhesion; And finally, the white formula presented weaknesses that, by the way, were fed up. Thus, people separated the leadership of Lacalle Pou on the one hand, from this concrete coalitionist offer for the other.

Fourth, tied to the above, was Orsi’s proposal. The left will never thank enough the white clumsiness of having allowed Vaudeville’s mess of that false complaint of a sexual nature against the candidate Orsi: such circumstance allowed the today president to show the entire Uruguay his entire temperance and coldness, that is, part of the necessary characteristics to be a good president. Such a candidate, who also tried to avoid the extremes and adhere to a strategy of rationality in key issues of government -there the role of Oddone was fundamental -allowed thousands of Uruguayans who valued well to the Lacalle Pou administration Pou voting quietly to the Frente Amplio Orsi.

Finally, the most obvious reason that helps unveil the mystery: Lacalle Pou was not a candidate for president in 2024, and history shows that exceptional leaderships are irreplaceable. That simple.



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