Generally, the winning candidate of a primary enters the general election with a kind of electoral bonus. The parties are placed at the service of their leadership and enthusiastically push the campaign. However, in dysfunctional coalitions this virtuous sequence can be transformed into a true hell. The losing parties lower their arms, exacerbate internal conflicts, resist supporting the winner, and end up screwing the other way around. It is what is known as “boomerang effect.” While Chilean legislation prohibits the losing parties from presenting another candidate for the first round, nothing forces them to campaign for the winner of the primary.
The latter is what could happen in the official primary. If there are few people and the first place is defined by few votes, the night of June 29 will be more of blows than hugs. Even if the winner is imposed by a wide margin, nothing guarantees unity. The losers could stimulate, sediciously, exogenous candidates for the pact, whether from the extreme left or center depending on the political color of the elementary winner. What to do then? The only option is to look for a good glue to gather all the pieces of an exhausted and dying coalition, and block support for candidacies outside the coalition. Who can fulfill that role? There is no other person than Michelle Bachelet. Your mission will be to prevent the second round from between the two rights, and must necessarily enter the campaign to control secessionist drives and the inevitable conflicts between leaders who want. The idea will be to endure as even the November elections, go to the second round, and try to surprise.
Bachelet, then, will enter “Minecraft”, affirming with ice cream sticks a coalition that has resisted, but shows obvious signs of fatigue. Probably, it will be your last dance, the most important.
By Mauricio Moralesacademic, unversity of Talca.
