Much of the country faces widespread and dangerously cold temperatures starting this weekend and lasting through much of next week, as a lobe of the polar vortex located north of Greenland is projected to move more than 3,000 miles (4,828 kilometers) south towards the USA.
More than 120 million people live in an area that will experience subzero temperatures, affecting more than a third of the population of USA. About 30 states and nearly 50 million people could experience temperatures below -23.3°C. Dangerous wind chills and extreme cold pose a risk of hypothermia and frostbite. Falling temperatures can cause pipes to freeze and burst, and threaten the power grid. The cold will also be a danger to pets and livestock.
The polar pattern will also cause snow accumulation and slick roads in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday, and the possibility of a wintry mix in the Deep South early next week.
By Monday, extremely cold air will reach as far south as the Gulf Coastwhere you will encounter warm air of oceanic origin. As a result, wintry precipitation is possible from Texas to the Carolinas between Monday night and Wednesday.
Even some parts of northern Florida They could experience snow or ice amid this unusual pattern.
The coldest air of the winter season, at least so far, will slide down the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains over the weekend and reach the East Coast on Monday.
This will lead to widespread intensely cold conditions comparable to the notorious winter 2014 polar vortex episode.
In January 2014, more than 140 million people in the United States experienced subzero temperatures (below 0℃, 32℉). Over the next two weeks of this year, about 120 million people are forecast to experience that level of cold.
The polar vortex, a ring of icy air usually found near the North Pole, will stretch and shift early next week, creating a path across the central and eastern United States.
Temperatures will drop to dangerously low levels, reaching between -28.9℃ and -34.4℃ in parts of North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan between Monday and Tuesday morning, which could cause frostbite to the skin. exposed in 10 to 20 minutes.
Areas from Illinois to Maine will experience low temperatures between -23.3℃ and -28.9℃ on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
Record temperatures are possible in places like Pittsburgh; Morgantown, West Virginia; and Binghamton, New York.
When wind factors are factored in, wind chills could reach -40℃ in North Dakota and northern Minnesota on Monday. On Tuesday, wind chills in Minnesota, as well as Wisconsin and Michigan, could reach -30℃, and -20℃ in Michigan, Ohio, western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, western New York and Ontario, Canada. on Wednesday.
Any decrease in temperatures to this level can be dangerous and deadly, and the associated risks must be taken seriously, especially for vulnerable populations. Pets should also be protected from the cold.
The extreme temperatures could strain the country’s already strained power grid and cause water pipes to freeze and burst. Following a deadly polar wave in February 2021, Texas reinforced its power grid by adding massive batteries, wind turbines and solar panels to better weather storms and cold snaps.
When frigid air reaches the United States next week, temperatures in Nuuk, Greenland, will be warmer than many areas of the United States.
The polar vortex lobe will retreat toward Canada by Friday. Although it will continue to be cold until next weekend, the intensity will be lower compared to the beginning of the week.
In late January and February, more unusually cold air could move into Canada and the northwestern United States.
This would allow more moisture to move northward, helping to form an active storm track across the country, driven by a strong jet stream pattern from the southern states to the East Coast.
The jet stream is a band of strong winds in the upper atmosphere along which storms move.
Long-range projections suggest February will be snowier than normal from the Northwest to the Northeast.
In other words, prepare for severe winter weather in the coming weeks.
Where and when snow and ice could fall
Two substantial storm systems could form as the polar vortex moves southward.
The first system is expected to form near the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday, bringing snow accumulations from Virginia to Maine.
Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (2.5 to 7.6 centimeters) will likely be widespread from Washington, D.C., to Boston, including Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City, although some areas of This runner falls between 7.6 and 15.2 centimeters (3 to 6 inches).
The amount will depend on how close the storm forms to the coast. Recent forecast trends have moved the storm closer to the coast, which would be conducive to greater snow accumulations.
Roads will likely be slick and snow-covered in this densely populated region from Sunday through early Monday.
The second storm could bring snow and ice from Texas to the Carolinas between Monday and Wednesday, and could even include Florida.
How far the colder air travels will determine where the snow and ice will fall.
In one scenario, the frigid, dry air associated with the polar vortex will limit storm activities to a narrow corridor in the Deep South. In another scenario, increased moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will produce broader winter impacts.
Cities that should be alert for the possibility of unusual winter weather early next week include Houston and San Antonio; Lafayette and New Orleans in Louisiana; Hattiesburg, Mississippi; Mobile and Montgomery in Alabama; Albany and Savannah in Georgia; Tallahassee and Jacksonville in Florida; Charleston and Myrtle Beach in South Carolina; and Wilmington, North Carolina.
In the worst case, travel could come to a standstill throughout the Deep South. A cycle of melting and refreezing could develop following the storm, leading to several days of icy conditions after the storm passes.
The pieces of the atmospheric puzzle that will generate the storm are currently over the North Pacific Ocean and Greenland. When they reach Canada and the United States over the weekend, the forecast for the storm in the south will be clearer.
Washington Post
Ben Noll
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