After the boil in the surroundings of January 10, we have entered a plateau in which Chavismo, already in reaction mode – and without still realizing, also in transition mode – continues to repeat their practice of inducing terror and press citizens, trying to get used to that there are no alternatives, that the page must be turned, and that they will stay forever … the “Eternal Maduro.” Which, by the way, will not happen … sooner rather than later they will leave.
In that same plateau, the population, internally, continues to accumulate resentment, but without manifesting publicly until momentum And, following the instructions of María Corina Machado, go out, but this time definitively. There is no Venezuelan home where it has not been concluded that Chavismo will not leave the government democratically … that it will not go for good, and that, if they do not leave, the country will be lost.
Today there are more people with the idea and the willingness to go outside to fight physically and violently to leave … because people can’t stand it anymore … don’t endure them anymore.
And to that conclusion they arrive because they have already tried everything peacefully reasonable, and it has not worked … in Chavismo they are so shameless that they occur to call new elections, assuming that Nicolás Maduro “already stayed” and that one must be restored ” tranquility ”in which no one believes.
Because there is no sustainable (political, economic or social) strategic projection of Venezuela that includes Chavismo … for people they “are already gone” but continue to resist, perhaps with a concept that they already have internalized, which consists of staying one day The time … one more day; Thus, common sense (and even their own intuition) tell you that the revolution does not give more.
Of the two macro groups in which Chavismo is divided, which we called the institutional, with Maduro at the head, are clear that they have no future, that is why by July 28 of last year they had agreed with the gringos to deliver power. But the other group, those who called the radicals, as they were not included (or wanted to be) in the negotiation, “kicked the board” and Diosdado Cabello, their most important reference, took over the revolution he continues to lead in Wild form to this day.
Today it could be said that Maduro, which is the visible face of the revolution and receives all the blows, is not convinced that what they are doing is the best. And that position I understand that it has not changed and that the internal differences are very deep … but Cabello has Vladimir godfather and replaced all the generals who responded to Maduro, by their own people, especially those of the DGCIM and the Sebin. Not only that, but he appointed himself Minister of the Interior to be in the cabinet meetings, which, they say, directs as if he were in charge … is that he really is.
And while they are in that internal bracelet, the opposition that today represents about 85% of the population (and almost 100% of the diaspora) continues to consolidate its position under the premise that Edmundo González’s mandate to be an elected president, is Improved, and will only cease when the Presidency of Venezuela assumes.
That is why the treatment given to Maduro is that of “de facto president” which generates instability in terms of the commitments that he can assume and fulfill, and the possibilities he has to wake up confidence face and face outside… it is that you no longer have any possibility of arouse trust.
Richard Grenelll and Nicolás Maduro. Photo: Presidency of Venezuela / AFP
He caught in the photo with Richard Grenelll- Trump’s special envoy to negotiate with the head of the kidnappers the freedom of 12 kidnapped Americans, from which he only managed visible shadow of each movement and of each decision that made the revolution in the last seven months.
Is it possible that Maduro, at that meeting, has once again tried a way to leave power? And that once again I have left hair on the outside because you know that you want to “cost what it costs”? Well … not forget that a couple of weeks before July 28 Maduro summoned the Americans to a meeting that was not known more … of course it was then learned … had agreed that in the elections there would be no traps in the accounts or In the system, and that, knowing that I was going to lose, I was willing to deliver power … he wanted, but they did not leave it.
Returning to the case of the six hostages that still maintains Chavismo, surely its release will not follow the same pattern of the previous six, but will have a different, perhaps broader approach, considering the other foreign prisoners, as the case of the case of the Argentine Gendarme.
As for how the day to day in Venezuela is lived, it could be said that the mini privileged group (not all plugged and collaborationists) can move in an environment where there are good stores and restaurants and that -if they did not behave badly or are sanctioned – They can travel with a certain regularity to breathe puffs of norms of normality.
The economy did not revive since last November, and it is unlikely that it does so in the short term or while Chavismo has control. Because it is very difficult for someone – national or foreign – to invest in machines and equipment, or even in working capital. Except, of course, niches as laboratories and pharmacies and telecommunications and perhaps some food, which are somehow those that are moving the consumer economy. That, by the way, and for years, it is the only one that works.
As for payment, it has been migrating from 60% dollars, to 60% bolivars, because the dollars began to scarce for what, if this collapses – as it is possible that it happens – it is better to be positioned in effective dollars or transfer. Because at this time, the dollar is behaving more as savings than as a transaction, and people prefer not to spend them … and sell them in the parallel market to have more bolivars to spend. It is nothing more than the same dynamic that, every time it is repeated it does so in worse conditions.
The oil is still the backbone of the economy, but this time leveraged in Chevron, whose lobby in Washington continues to work and, like the Chavista dome, they continue one day at the same time … everything they can take out, before They can get it. But of course … the oil business does not allow production increases from one day to another, but rather from one year to another. It seems that they have already reached their top based on the existing investment, and with that it is what they must count.
Now, if they were going, PDVSA production would also be affected by all the support that Chevron lends them … that is, the damage would be greater than the single production they have been able to reach.
The weeks will be important in terms of definitions by the United States and Trump, because between Chavismo and Opposition, once again in 25 years, they have the “set play”, and only Trump can decide what is going to pass. And the latter is important because Trump is a specialist in “Removing rabbits from the galley”, like the Riviera de Gaza. Keep the Panama channel, incorporate Canada as State 51 of the Union, or buy Greenland to the Danes. And as for the change of name of the “Gulf of Mexico” to “Gulf of America”, Google Maps will change the name for users of the United States … and in the case of Google, it is as if the name had already been changed.
The question is whether the solution for our case will be the natural derivation of how we see things from Venezuela, or if it will have a disruptive solution, associated with the Marshall Plan that is seen coming, in which the US has control of the future of Venezuela … Because thinking about the horrifying present that is making us live the revolution and also the horrific future that awaits us if they stay, any solution that improves us seems acceptable. It is a matter of waiting, because the solution, once again, is no longer in our hands.
Recommendation
- To the government: that seriously consider organizing the transition, creating link commissions and defining a date for the change of command. Today it is almost impossible to positively recommend the Chavista government steps or actions that do not include Edmundo González or María Corina Machado. They can not last much more … the people do not want them.
- To the opposition leadership: that it is important that all possible efforts be made to give greater internal content to the movement of change that is coming. It is different from a solution that comes from the outside and that the people massively support it, that a solution that comes from the town and that from outside support it. There are still Venezuelans capable of “subtracting” for the freedom of their homeland.
- To the business leadership: That it should be clear that there is a difference between conversations – which are necessary even with the enemies – and dialogue, and serve as a “comparsa” and “stable cast” of everything that occurs to Chavismo to stay in power. Today there is no doubt that among the factors that support the government, in addition to the forces of shock and repression, are the political, business and military domes … because the foundations of all of them feel repudiation … and the worst of the situation is that those domes They know that the Government of Chavismo is not viable … and, in some way, they have decided to immolate themselves with him … well … they were warned … They are already great and know what they do, and what they do to their family members of surname … children and grandchildren.
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