The crisis in the egg supply in the United States, a direct consequence of the outbreak of bird fluis wreaking havoc on both consumers and producers. As reported The New York Timesthe prices of this feed, considered an economical protein option, rose to historic levels due to factors such as inflation and the massive loss of birds infected by the virus. H5N1 virus.
In a Walmart In Ozark, Missouri, “shoppers were surprised and even outraged to see the almost empty shelves in the dairy section,” Laura Modrell told the outlet.
The impact of the avian influenza has been devastating, with more than 136 million birds infected or slaughtered to slow the spread of the disease since the virus entered the United States in 2022. In the last three months alone, about 30 million laying hens—10% of the country’s total laying bird population— have been eliminated, according to figures shared in the report.
This represents a critical blow to the industry, considering that it takes about six months to recover the supply of chickens to previous levels, which were around 318 million birds (one per person). “This is the most devastating wave of bird flu outbreak we have seen in three years,” he said. Karyn Rispoliegg management editor at Expanaa firm specialized in price analysis, in statements to the media.
The problem left its mark on consumers’ pockets. While a year ago the increase in consumer prices was 37%now wholesalers have reached record rates of 7 dollars per dozenup from $2.25 the previous fall, according to data provided to The New York Times.
However, buyers have not yet fully felt the consequences of the shortfall. As explained Karen Meletaspokesperson for the Wakefern supermarket cooperative, maintaining low prices on essential products such as milk and eggs by attracting customers creates difficult challenges: “It is a difficult thing to balance, especially with the volatility of the market and the uncertainty generated by these continuous outbreaks,” He pointed to the middle.
The scarcity is not only reflected in numbers, but also in everyday experiences. Sarah Joy Haysowner of Counterspace bakery, based in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, shared with The New York Times how you have had to face this crisis.
Before Thanksgiving, I paid less than 2 dollars for a dozen eggsnecessary to produce cookies and quiches. However, after receiving a quote from $7.86 dozen, he took an unusual step: driving to a nearby Sam’s Club, where he managed to purchase them for $3.86but with purchase restrictions. “I can carry limited quantities, so I have to make several trips. But given the circumstances, it seems like a bargain,” he told the outlet.
In CaliforniaTracy and Jason Ramsdell’s farm suffered an outbreak in December that forced them to cull 40,000 pastured laying hens. Although the federal government is making compensation payments for destroyed birds, the ultimate costs remain high, and the road to recovery is slow. “It will take us at least six months to repopulate our farms and get back to business,” he said. Tracy Ramsdell to The New York Timesadding that recent episodes have generated widespread uncertainty for the entire poultry industry.
Meanwhile, industry experts and government sources highlighted possible solutions, including mass vaccination of poultry livestock against H5N1. However, challenges remain, as the rapid emergence of new strains could limit the effectiveness of current vaccines.
“Vaccinating more than 300 million birds not only has an uncertain cost, but also implications for international trade,” explained Chad Hart, an economist at the Iowa State University. According to data shared in the report, some countries could impose blockades on US poultry exports due to regulatory differences over vaccines. In 2022, these shipments represented around 5.5 billion dollars.
The specialized press emphasizes that this crisis could last for several months. According to Brian Moscogiuri, vice president of Eggs Unlimitedthe market will take at least half a year to stabilize. “We need the avian influenza outbreaks to stop and the farms to be repopulated without interruptions,” Moscogiuri told the outlet, who also pointed out the impact on the production of replacement chicks, a process that could last until 2026 if orders are placed today.
On the other hand, fears about the spread of the virus are not limited to laying hens. The New York Times warned about outbreaks reported in broiler operations (for meat consumption) in Georgia, a key state for poultry production. The situation led to the sacrifice of 175,000 chickens in the north of the state and the implementation of a quarantine zone of 10 kilometers around the affected farms, according to statements collected from the communications director of the Georgia Department of Agriculture, Matthew Agvent.
Although the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) assures that the risk to humans is low and that products such as eggs and pasteurized milk are safe as long as they are cooked properly, analysts warn that prices will continue to rise.
