What would be the impact of 25% tariffs on merchandise imported from Mexico to the US

After 10 days of the return of Donald Trump To the White House, the looms on the imposition of duty at merchandise imported to the United States from Mexico They are more frequent. The president’s weapon transcended to become a tool for his foreign policy, a situation that could directly impact the national economy.

During the signing of a series of executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House, the president of the United States reiterated his intention to impose tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, which could enter Vigot on February 1. As he said, it is a response to fentanyl traffic and the entry of migrants in an irregular situation.

“We will announce the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for several reasons. The first is the people who arrive in our country so horrible and in so much and of everything else that has entered the country, ”he said.

Due to the proximity between countries, both Mexico as USA and Canada signed the T-MEC in order to favor commercial flow in the region. As a result, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), the 84% of the goods that came out of Mexico They were located in the US market.

This figure is a reflection of the high level of participation that Mexico has in the United States market and, therefore, its level of reciprocal influence. It is worth mentioning that a tariff It is an additional figure to the value of the product that producers must pay to be able to enter and participate in a market through its sale.

According to specialists, one of the main effects could be the reduction of exports. Similarly, according to estimates of the qualifier Moody´scited by The Universalthe rhythm of remittances will be lower, inflation could increase and, therefore, economic growth will reduce its rates.

In the heading of goods, those companies dedicated to the manufacture of auto parts, mechanical equipment, fruits and food and alcoholic beverages, which have a higher participation index, could suffer the consequences to a greater extent. This could pray to rethink their strategy.

For his part, Genaro Becerra, operational director of the Export Industry (Index), said the measure could be translated into the Loss of jobs in the country. However, Amador Zamora, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) denied that the impact of tariff policy can be estimated.

“So far there is no specific determination regarding commercial policy. There are pronouncements, but we do not yet have a specific content of what the net effect on tariff policy (…) until we know the specific business policy of the United States will be, We will not be able to do any evaluation. We do not have a way of making specific calculations to know the impact, ”he said at a press conference.

There are specialists who have denied the possibility that Donald Trump Impose such a high tariff due to the participation of Mexico. In this regard, they have warned that the United States could also suffer economic consequences.

In the midst of tension, Marcelo EbrardSecretary of Economy, said that the authorities are prepared for any scenario, even if the announced tariff policy is completed. Meanwhile, the Bank of America considered that Mexico has the possibility to face the rise in tariffs.

“Mexico has a great strength that other countries do not have, which is that the exchange market; It works very well so that even if they put fees to Mexico, the impact would be much lower because it would absorb almost all the weight, ”said Carlos Capistrán, chief economist for Latin America and Canada.